The offseason is the time of year for unfiltered optimism. Every player is in the best shape of their life, the game is slowing down for them, and they are making great plays in camp. Not everything you hear from training camp is going to align with what you see during the year of course, and sometimes fantasy managers and analysts can get carried away with training camp hype. Below are a few players who I think analysts need to start pumping the breaks on.
Saquon Barkley
There have been murmurs out of training camp most of the offseason that Barkley is not fully recovered from his torn ACL may not be 100% to start the season. More recently, reports have come out that it's possible Barkley may miss the first few weeks of the season.
Barkley has an undeniable league-winning upside, but he’s already on an offense that’s likely going to struggle to score touchdowns this year in New York. If he’s not 100% that worries me because who knows when he will be ready and once he does return if he’s going to be the Saquon of old. Especially concerning to me is that the Giants brought in Alfred Morris last week indicating that the Giants may be preparing for Saquon to miss some time to begin the year.
I don’t believe Saquon hits his touchdown upside in a mediocre offense to finish in the top 5 this year. I’m also worried about him being eased in to start the year, as well as his passing game upside being limited with the expanded threats brought in this offseason in Kenny Golladay, Kyle Rudolph, and 1st round pick Kadarius Toney.
Michael Carter
Michael Carter started out as a bit of a value at running back after the NFL draft going in the late ’30s to early ’40s at running back, but he’s currently being drafted as the RB32, ahead of Trey Sermon and Ronald Jones!
I don’t know about you but I’m not particularly interested in a Jets running back even if he was the clear-cut #1 guy, but we don’t even know for sure yet that he’s going to be the RB1. Carter is competing for touches with Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and Lamical Perine. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but Carter was only selected as a fourth-round pick - the Jets weren’t dying to grab him. Carter was projected as more of a scatback going into the draft, and the only reason his ADP is where it is because of the lack of competition in New York and I hate drafting guys because of their situation who may not have the talent to back up their ADP.
I’m not convinced that Carter is even going to finish as the top back from the Jets this year, I do have him projected as their number 1 by touch total, but it's likely to be as part of a large committee in New York in an ugly offense with little upside. Carter is JAG (just another guy) on an anemic offense that's unlikely to be working in the red zone enough or with the right game script for Carter to hit his peak potential this season. I would rather have players like Ronald Jones, Trey Sermon, James Conner, or Gus Edwards here.
D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore is entering his fourth year in the league - the most touchdowns he’s seen in a season thus far is 4. D.J. Moore is a good wide receiver in real life, but he’s not built for fantasy football. He hasn’t shown himself to be a red zone threat yet and he hasn't been a huge possession threat either - putting up only 6 of 15 games with greater than 4 catches last season.
The Panthers are not expected to be a very good offense this year - downgrading from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Darnold at QB. Between the additions of Christian McCaffrey and rookie Terrace Marshall Jr., I expect these two to more than replace the targets lost from the departures of Curtis Samuel and Mike Davis, which should result in a lower target share for Moore than last year and limits his upside.
I like D.J. Moore the player, but I hate him where he’s being drafted, currently the WR18 in half PPR on Fantasy Pros. He’s being ranked ahead of Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Courtland Sutton, all of whom come with a much higher upside in my opinion, D.J. Moore is an easy fade for me here.
Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay goes from a Detroit Lions offense where he was one of the only reliable options for Matthew Stafford to the New York Giants offense bursting at the seam with skill position weapons: Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, 1st round pick Kadarius Toney, Evan Engram, and some guy named Saquon Barkley. The Giants offense with Daniel Jones is simply not dynamic enough to support all of these players, and I’m anticipating that Kenny G is going to be a frustrating player to own this year with not enough targets to go around in this offense for him to be the reliable option week to week that you’re drafting him to be at his ADP of WR24.
Reports that Golladay is dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp are not doing anything to help indicate that you’re going to be able to rely on Golladay this year. Remember that last year he missed time to begin the year with a hamstring injury and went on the injured reserve because of a hip flexor mid-season.
It was also being reported even before dealing with his hamstring again this training camp that he had been struggling to get separation from corner James Bradberry in practice. I don’t believe that Golladay is going to be at 100% this year and is an easy fade for me with him being drafted at WR24.